As the emerald curtain rises on Universal Pictures’ highly anticipated “Wicked” adaptation, all eyes are on its box office potential. With its star-studded cast, beloved source material, and massive marketing push, industry experts are predicting a magical opening weekend. But just how high can this musical fantasy soar?
A Bewitching Opening Weekend
According to industry projections, “Wicked” is poised to cast a powerful spell on moviegoers:
- Boxoffice Pro estimates a domestic opening between $120 million and $140 million
- Studio projections are more conservative, suggesting around $100 million
- Early preview numbers are promising, with $19.2 million from various advance screenings
These figures put “Wicked” on track to potentially break records for movie musicals. For context, the current record holder for biggest musical opening is 2019’s “The Lion King” at $191.8 million, though its classification as a musical is debatable. Among more traditional movie musicals, “Beauty and the Beast” (2017) holds the crown with a $174.8 million debut.
Factors Fueling the Forecast
Several elements are contributing to “Wicked’s” high expectations:
- Built-in Fanbase: The Broadway musical has captivated audiences for two decades, creating a large, loyal following eager to see the story on screen.
- Star Power: Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo bring both vocal talent and massive fan bases to their roles as Glinda and Elphaba.
- Marketing Blitz: Universal has partnered with over 400 brands worldwide, creating a ubiquitous presence for the film.
- Critical Reception: Early reviews have been largely positive, with a 90% “Certified Fresh” rating on Rotten Tomatoes.
- Holiday Timing: Releasing during the Thanksgiving weekend positions “Wicked” to capitalize on family moviegoing.
Challenges to Consider
While expectations are high, some factors could potentially limit “Wicked’s” box office performance:
- Runtime: At 2 hours and 40 minutes, the film’s length could reduce the number of daily showings.
- Musical Fatigue: Recent movie musicals have had mixed results at the box office.
- Competition: “Gladiator II” opens the same weekend, potentially splitting audience attention.
Beyond Opening Weekend
The true test for “Wicked” will be its staying power. Musicals often benefit from strong word-of-mouth and repeat viewings. If the film resonates with audiences as strongly as the stage show, it could have long legs at the box office.
Additionally, this is only Part One of a two-film adaptation. Its performance will likely influence expectations and marketing strategies for the sequel, scheduled for release in 2025.
International Prospects
While domestic numbers are grabbing headlines, “Wicked’s” international potential shouldn’t be overlooked. The stage show has a global following, which could translate to strong overseas numbers. However, the success of movie musicals can vary significantly by market.
Industry Impact
A strong performance by “Wicked” could have ripple effects throughout Hollywood:
- Renewed interest in big-budget movie musicals
- Increased confidence in adapting stage productions
- Potential for more two-part film adaptations of lengthy source material
The Final Verdict
Will “Wicked” defy gravity at the box office? Early indicators suggest a resounding yes. While it may not reach the stratospheric heights of some superhero blockbusters, “Wicked” appears poised to deliver a much-needed boost to the 2024 box office.
As the weekend unfolds, all eyes will be on those emerald-tinted numbers. One thing’s for certain – the land of Oz is about to make its presence felt in multiplexes across the nation.
Sources:
- Deadline – Box Office: ‘Wicked’ Eyes $20M Previews, ‘Gladiator II’ $6M+
- Los Angeles Times – Box office preview: ‘Wicked’ and ‘Gladiator 2’ hit theaters
- Variety – Can ‘Wicked’ Break the Movie Musical Curse at the Box Office?
- The Hollywood Reporter – Box Office Preview: ‘Wicked’ Hopes to Conjure Big Opening
- Forbes – ‘Wicked’ Box Office: 5 Reasons To Be Optimistic About The $100 Million Musical
