In a cinematic showdown reminiscent of last summer’s “Barbenheimer” phenomenon, two highly anticipated films are set to clash at the box office this Thanksgiving weekend. Ridley Scott’s long-awaited sequel “Gladiator II” and Jon M. Chu’s adaptation of the beloved Broadway musical “Wicked” are both poised to make significant impacts on the movie industry. But which one will emerge victorious in this epic battle for box office supremacy?
The Contenders
Wicked: A Magical Musical Journey
“Wicked,” based on the long-running Broadway smash hit, serves as both a prequel and sequel to “The Wizard of Oz.” The film stars Ariana Grande as Glinda and Cynthia Erivo as Elphaba, exploring the unlikely friendship between the two witches of Oz before Dorothy’s arrival.
Key Details:
- Director: Jon M. Chu
- Budget: $150 million
- Release Date: November 22, 2024
- Studio: Universal Pictures
Gladiator II: Return to the Colosseum
Twenty-four years after the original Oscar-winning film, “Gladiator II” continues the epic tale of revenge and honor in ancient Rome. Paul Mescal stars as Lucius, the nephew of Joaquin Phoenix’s character from the first film, alongside Denzel Washington and Pedro Pascal.
Key Details:
- Director: Ridley Scott
- Budget: $250 million
- Release Date: November 22, 2024
- Studio: Paramount Pictures
Box Office Predictions and Early Performance
Both films have generated significant buzz and are expected to perform well at the box office. Let’s break down the early numbers and projections:
Wicked
- Preview Earnings: $19.2 million (including special advance screenings)
- Thursday Preview: $11 million from 3,300 cinemas
- Opening Weekend Projection: $100 million to $130 million
- Potential to break the record for best debut of a Broadway adaptation (currently held by “Into the Woods” at $31 million)
Gladiator II
- Thursday Preview: $6.5 million from 3,200 locations
- Opening Weekend Projection: $59 million to $66 million
- International Opening: $87 million from 63 markets (biggest R-rated opening weekend overseas for Paramount Pictures)
Factors Influencing Success
Several factors could contribute to the success of each film:
Wicked
- Built-in Fanbase: The Broadway show has a massive following, which could translate to ticket sales.
- Star Power: Ariana Grande’s involvement brings her considerable fanbase to the mix.
- Family-Friendly: With a PG rating, “Wicked” can attract a wider audience, including families.
- Marketing Push: Universal has launched an extensive marketing campaign, including over 400 brand partnerships.
Gladiator II
- Nostalgia Factor: The original “Gladiator” was a critical and commercial success, potentially drawing in fans of the first film.
- Adult Appeal: With an R-rating, “Gladiator II” caters to an older audience looking for more intense action.
- Director’s Reputation: Ridley Scott’s name carries significant weight in the industry.
- International Appeal: The film’s strong overseas opening suggests global interest in the sequel.
Critical Reception
Early reviews play a crucial role in building word-of-mouth momentum. Here’s how the films are faring with critics:
Wicked
- Rotten Tomatoes Score: 89% Fresh
- Praise for the performances of Grande and Erivo
- Positive reception of the film’s visual spectacle and faithful adaptation of the source material
Gladiator II
- Rotten Tomatoes Score: 72% Fresh
- Mixed reviews, with praise for the action sequences and performances
- Some criticism regarding the plot’s similarity to the original film
Comparison with Recent Releases
To put these projections into perspective, let’s compare them with other recent blockbusters:
| Movie | Opening Weekend | Total Domestic Gross |
|---|---|---|
| Barbie (2023) | $162 million | $636 million |
| Oppenheimer (2023) | $82.4 million | $325 million |
| The Lion King (2019) | $191.8 million | $543.6 million |
| Top Gun: Maverick (2022) | $126.7 million | $718.7 million |
Both “Wicked” and “Gladiator II” are tracking to perform well within this range of successful films.
The “Glicked” Effect
Much like the “Barbenheimer” phenomenon of 2023, there’s speculation about whether audiences will create a double-feature experience with “Wicked” and “Gladiator II.” This potential “Glicked” or “Wickiator” trend could boost both films’ performances as moviegoers seek out the contrasting experiences.
Challenges and Considerations
While both films have strong potential, they also face certain challenges:
Wicked
- Recent track record of musical adaptations struggling at the box office (e.g., “In the Heights,” “Dear Evan Hansen”)
- High production costs, with a sequel already in production
- Pressure to perform well to justify the two-part release strategy
Gladiator II
- Long gap since the original film (24 years) may affect audience interest
- High production budget requires significant box office success to be profitable
- Competition from other action-oriented films in the market
Long-term Prospects
Beyond opening weekend, several factors could influence the long-term success of these films:
- Word of Mouth: Positive audience reactions could lead to sustained ticket sales.
- Awards Season Potential: Both films could generate buzz for the upcoming awards season, extending their theatrical runs.
- International Performance: Strong overseas numbers could offset any potential domestic shortfalls.
- Streaming and Home Video: Future revenue from digital releases and physical media sales will contribute to overall profitability.
The musical film “Wicked” had a very strong opening, generating over $19 million in previews across Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday. This included $2.5 million from Amazon Prime screenings, $5.7 million from Wednesday advance screenings, and $11 million from standard previews on Thursday. The film is expected to have a robust opening weekend in the $130-$150 million range.
Meanwhile, the sequel “Gladiator II” also had a solid Thursday preview performance, earning around $6.5 million. This is in line with recent sequels like “Kingdom of The Planet of the Apes” and “No Time to Die”, and the film is projected to open in the $59-$66 million range.
Overall, the box office is off to a strong start this holiday weekend, with these two major releases generating significant early interest and momentum. The article provides analysis of factors that may impact their opening weekend performance, such as runtime, marketing, and audience reception.
FAQ
Q: Which movie is expected to perform better at the box office?
A: Based on current projections, “Wicked” is expected to have a higher opening weekend, with estimates ranging from $100 million to $130 million. However, “Gladiator II” is also tracking strongly and could surprise with its performance.
Q: Are these movies appropriate for all ages?
A: “Wicked” is rated PG and is generally suitable for family viewing. “Gladiator II” is rated R and is intended for adult audiences due to its violent content and mature themes.
Q: Will there be sequels to these films?
A: “Wicked” is already planned as a two-part film, with the second installment set for release in 2025. The possibility of further “Gladiator” sequels will likely depend on the performance of “Gladiator II.”
Q: How do these films compare to their predecessors or source material?
A: “Wicked” is an adaptation of a Broadway musical, which itself is based on a novel. Early reviews suggest it stays faithful to the stage production while adding cinematic elements. “Gladiator II” is a sequel to the 2000 film, set 20 years after the events of the original, with a new protagonist but similar themes.
Q: Where can I watch these movies?
A: Both “Wicked” and “Gladiator II” are releasing in theaters on November 22, 2024. Check your local cinema listings for showtimes and ticket availability.
Conclusion
The clash between “Wicked” and “Gladiator II” at the box office promises to be one of the most exciting cinematic events of 2024. With strong early numbers, positive critical reception, and significant audience anticipation, both films are poised for success. Whether you’re drawn to the magical world of Oz or the gritty arena of ancient Rome, this Thanksgiving weekend offers something for every moviegoer. As the battle unfolds, one thing is certain: the real winners will be the audiences who get to experience these highly anticipated blockbusters on the big screen.
